Residential segregation and the spatial epidemiology of infection

PUBHLTH 405
Social Epidemiology of Infectious Disease
University of Michigan School of Public Health

Jon Zelner
[email protected]
epibayes.io

Agenda

  • How can dynamic models help us better understand the implications of Infectious Fear?

  • Hands-on activity exploring mechanistic relationships between segregation and infectious disease transmission.

  • What to expect in our in-class presentation workshop on Monday.

Logistics:

  • Presenting 10/26: Malaria 🦟, Plague 🐀, MRSA 🦠, Monkeypox 🦠

  • Presenting 🦇 10/31 🎃: Bacterial STIs 🦠, Pediatric Diarrheal disease 🦠, Polio 💉

  • Plan on presenting for ~20m including Q&A

  • If you have slides etc. please send to me ahead of time so I can load up on 🖥️.

What are we talking about when we talk about epidemiological models?

Models and modelers have been key to COVID-19 response

Modeling has become a key element of pandemic preparedness.

“Pandemic preparedness is a continuous process of planning, exercising, revising and translating into action national and sub-national pandemic preparedness and response plans. A pandemic plan is thus a living document which is reviewed regularly and revised if necessary…based on the lessons learnt from outbreaks or a pandemic, or from a simulation exercise.”

WHO 2011

What does an epidemiological model do?

  • Represent explicit ideas about how transmission systems work.

  • Define interactons between system components.

  • Explore the relative contributions of individual, spatial, and social/environmental relationships to population-level risks.

  • Ask questions about alternative social, political and medical futures.

  • Ultimately: Let us take a systems perspective on infectious diseases.

Are these tools relevant for understanding the social history of infection?

  • What kind of social/structural mechanisms are likely to be important drivers of variation in these risks?

  • If we built a transmission model based on Infectious Fear, what might it be useful for?

  • In the present day?

  • For better understanding history?

Diagram showing relationships between COVID-19 transmission and public and policy response.

What does it mean to take a systems perspective on socio-historical epidemiology?

  • On your own: What are the key components of the epidemiological system described in Infectious Fear? (5m)

  • In groups of 3-4: Compare the components you defined and diagram out your representation of that system, drawing on the ideas in the Acevedo-Garcia et al. paper (10m)

  • Pair up with another group, compare your diagrams and discuss who - if anyone - might find a model like this useful. (10m)

05:00

Time to go hands-on

Road-testing a model that integrates social and biological mechanisms behind infection inequity

Next Time

  • Proposal presentation workshop!

  • Come ready to work on your presentations.

  • Will do an exercise at the beginning to help plan out the rest of your project.

  • Kelly and I will check in with groups during class and help troubleshoot.